Hanoi, August 24, 2024, The Europe Today: Recent global weather patterns, characterized by relentless storms and heavy rainfall, have significantly affected regions across Asia and beyond. Meteorologists attribute these dramatic changes to the transition from El Niño to La Niña, marking the onset of a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state.
El Niño, which involves the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically lasts eight to twelve months and occurs approximately every three to four years. In contrast, La Niña represents the cooling phase of the same oceanic region, though its frequency can vary. This transition has already triggered extreme weather conditions worldwide.
In Việt Nam, experts have warned that La Niña is expected to complicate rain, storm, and flood patterns, particularly in the central region, from now until the end of the year. The increased likelihood of heavy rainfall and intense downpours is expected to elevate the risk of flooding and urban inundation, posing significant challenges for the affected areas.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño weakened and transitioned to a neutral ENSO state between April and June 2024. The WMO has predicted a 75-80 percent likelihood of La Niña developing between July and September, with a 55-65 percent probability of its occurrence.
The transition from El Niño to La Niña has already resulted in extreme weather conditions across the globe. In the Philippines, the national weather authority predicts that La Niña will commence in August and extend into the first quarter of 2025, likely intensifying tropical storms and heavy rains. Some areas have already experienced unusual rainfall patterns since late July.
Similarly, in mid-July, eastern Afghanistan was hit by heavy rains that resulted in at least 35 deaths, hundreds of injuries, and extensive damage to property and crops. China’s national meteorological agency has issued warnings for heavy rains and high temperatures across multiple regions, with some areas recording over 200mm of rainfall. South Korea has also faced record-breaking rainfall, unprecedented in the past 200 years.
Meteorological experts warn that the onset of La Niña may bring significant rainfall and sudden temperature drops in many areas, even during the summer months. The WMO has cautioned that extreme weather is becoming the “new normal” as natural disasters increase in frequency. The heatwaves of summer 2023 and April-June 2024, driven by El Niño, are now giving way to the heavy rains, tropical storms, and other associated disasters typical of La Niña.
As regions brace for the potential impacts of La Niña, the global community remains vigilant, recognizing the growing threat posed by these shifting weather patterns.
