Rabat, July 12, 2025 – The Europe Today: Morocco’s economy is forecast to expand by 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, according to new estimates released by the High Commission for Planning (HCP). The projection underscores a sustained economic momentum carried over from the beginning of the year, although growth may register a slight deceleration compared to earlier months.
The HCP attributed this performance largely to robust domestic demand, which is expected to contribute 6.6 percentage points to overall economic growth. This strong internal dynamic is anticipated to offset weaker external demand resulting from a slowdown in global economic activity.
Investment and household consumption—both key drivers of the post-2024 recovery—continue to exhibit strength. However, the pace of expansion in these areas may moderate in the months ahead.
Non-agricultural activities are projected to rise by 4.2% in Q3, following a 4.4% increase in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures are likely to remain subdued. With global oil prices on a downward trend, the inflation rate is expected to decline to 1.1%, while core inflation may remain around 0.8%.
These forecasts are based on the assumption that global oil markets remain stable and food supply chains are not disrupted by external shocks.
Nonetheless, the HCP emphasized that several uncertainties could influence the outlook. Chief among them is the potential impact of new U.S. tariffs on European goods, which may negatively affect Morocco’s exports, particularly in sectors closely tied to the European market such as automobiles, chemicals, textiles, and metallurgy.
In addition, the agricultural sector could face downward pressure if prolonged hot weather reduces animal production. However, certain sectors are expected to provide a buffer. Growth in the agri-food industry—including cereal processing and fish canning—is anticipated, while the chemical sector is projected to remain a strong contributor to industrial output.
A further drop in global oil prices could help keep inflation under control and support economic expansion, provided no major geopolitical disruptions arise.
The HCP’s latest outlook underscores both the opportunities and vulnerabilities that lie ahead for Morocco’s economy as it navigates an evolving global landscape.
