The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by China is at a crossroad twelve years after it was launched in 2013. Firstly, having been originally planned as a grand strategy to bridge Asia, Europe, and Africa together by way of infrastructure, trade, and investment, the BRI has become one of the largest development projects in the history of modernity – involving over 150 countries and mobilising well over a trillion dollars in projects (World Bank 2023). But in the world that is becoming more and more concerned with the question of sustainability, a question that defines the BRI is the ability of China to transform that global vision into a truly sustainable development model in the future.
Infrastructure to sustainability.
Large-scale infrastructure (ports, railways, highways, and energy plants) dominated the first decade of the BRI that sought to fill connectivity gaps in the Global South. BRI investments have also increased access to energy and enhanced trade logistics in most partner countries, such as Pakistan, Kenya, and Laos (Zhai 2022). Nevertheless, critics have maintained over time that these benefits were at the expense of environmental pollution, debts, and governance issues (Hurley, Morris, and Portelance 2018).
Understanding such issues, China has become an indication of a change of direction. During the Third Belt and Road Forum (2023), President Xi Jinping has stressed the shift to high-quality, green, and digital Belt and Road (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China 2023). Such rhetoric represents an evidence of increased realization among the leadership of Beijing that the sustainability (both environmental and financial) is now the keystone of the legitimacy and survival of the enterprise. It will however be a challenge to translate this new vision into action in various political or economic settings.
The Environmental Imperative
Sustainability is not a buzzword but it has become a necessity. Most of the early BRI energy projects were highly fossil-based, and coal-based power plants had a considerable share of investments (IEA 2021). These undertakings were in conflict with Paris Climate Agreement and local environmental priorities. The initial stage of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Pakistan, which depended on imported coal to supply the country with short-term energy, is an example of these concerns, with carbon emissions and air quality (Ali 2020).
In turn, China declared in 2021 that it would not finance any new coal projects in other countries and increase its investments in renewable energy. This move is considered a turning point which indicates an attempt to re-fashion the BRI as a green transformation engine. The latest developments, including solar parks in the Punjab province of Pakistan and wind farms in Central Asia, indicate that this change is slowly taking shape (Shen and Lin 2023). But the bigger concern is whether these green proposals will be able to balance the carbon intensive legacy of the first decade.
Debt Debate and Economic Sustainability.
In addition to the environment, the financial sustainability of the BRI is debatable. Western policy analysts and commentators, especially those in the US, have accused China of taking part in so called debt-trap diplomacy, whereby BRI loans load low-income countries with unsustainable debt (Kratz, Feng, and Wright 2019). But empirical research disproves this story, indicating that the majority of the BRI debts are tied to fiscal mismanagement at the domestic level of the recipient nations, instead of predatory lending (Brautigam 2020).
Nevertheless, the BRI as an economic model is put to the test. The availability of financing has been limited by the increasing interest rates in the world, post-pandemic debt distress, and declining Chinese growth. This has seen Beijing change its approach to large-scale lending to smaller, more focused projects, focusing on technology transfer, green energy, and digital connectivity (Zhang 2024). This change is both an adjustment to financial reality and an effort to reinvent the image of BRI as a venue of sustainable and mutually advantageous collaboration.
The Social Dimension of Sustainability
A real sustainable BRI also should be people-centered development. Infrastructure is not a panacea to prosperity unless it enhances education, healthcare, employment and resilience of the community. China has already introduced such aspects in its programs such as BRI Green Development Coalition and the Digital Silk Road which support access to technologies, vocational education, and environmental protection (UNDP 2022).
A good example is the current CPEC portfolio in Pakistan. Although the initial phase is energy-oriented and transport-oriented, the second phase concentrates on the industrial parks, modernization of agriculture, and human resource (Government of Pakistan 2023). This kind of changes indicates that the BRI sustainability narrative is growing to be more than an infrastructure-focused story and includes inclusive and equitable growth.
Challenges Ahead
In spite of this progress, the sustainability aspirations of the BRI have serious structural difficulties. To start with, policy coherence between the partner countries is still low with inconsistent environmental standards and monitoring systems. Second, lack of transparency and governance still erodes trust especially when it comes to the terms of contract and assessment of impacts on the environment. Lastly, geopolitical conflicts, in particular between China and Western countries, have the potential to disintegrate the global partnership in the development process and make the BRI not a collaborative but a conflictual platform (Liu and O’Neill 2024).
In an attempt to address such challenges, China and its partners need to be dedicated to strong accountability strategies, social participation, and alignment with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The success of the BRI in the long run will not be based on the size of its projects but rather on their ability to promote climate resilience, social inclusion and stability in the region.
The Road Ahead: From BRI to Global Sustainability
The next ten years of the BRI is characterized by its capability to balance between growth and responsibility as the organization enters the second decade. The change of the initiative into a framework of sustainability is not only the transition of the policy of China but also the transition to the development paradigm in the world. With climate change, inequality, and the uncertainty of geopolitics, the Belt and Road can still be relevant, assuming it becomes truly green in terms of embracing innovation, socially fair, and multilateral.
The global vision of China which used to be based on physical infrastructural development has now been thrown the moral and strategic challenge of developing into a source of sustainable development. In case the Belt and Road takes that leap – the tangible into the carbon-neutral, the profit to the planet – it might not only be a geopolitical endeavor, but also a demonstration of the way to a common and environmentally friendly future.
