Astana, November 20, 2025 – The Europe Today: At today’s plenary session of the Kazakh Senate, Deputy Prime Minister and National Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin presented the country’s socioeconomic development forecast for 2026–2028, highlighting steady GDP growth, sectoral expansion, and a sustainable fiscal policy.
According to the Deputy Prime Minister, under the baseline scenario, real GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2026, with an average annual growth of 5.3% over the three-year period. Nominal GDP is projected to rise from 183.8 trillion tenge in 2026 to 229.8 trillion tenge in 2028. Economic growth will be driven primarily by the real sector and services, with manufacturing growth forecast at 6.2% in 2026, rising to 6.6% by 2028 due to ongoing investment projects. Other sectors are expected to grow as follows: mining 2.8%, agriculture 3.9%, construction 11.0%, transport services 10.1%, and trade 7.0%.
Exports are projected to increase from USD 77.1 billion in 2026 to USD 83.7 billion in 2028, while imports are expected to rise from USD 67.7 billion to USD 75.2 billion. Inflation is forecast at 9.0–11.0% in 2026, with an average of 6.0% in 2027–2028. These macroeconomic forecasts form the basis for the country’s budget and National Fund parameters over the same period.
On fiscal policy, Minister Zhumangarin emphasized that the government aims to maintain sustainable and balanced public finances, reduce the budget deficit, and gradually replace National Fund transfers with domestic revenues. Revenues in 2026 are projected at 19.2 trillion tenge, or 10.5% of GDP, an increase of 4.7 trillion tenge compared to current estimates, reaching 23.2 trillion tenge by 2028, up 20.8%. The share of the republican budget covered by domestic revenues is expected to rise from 63.7% in 2025 to 83.5% in 2028.
The guaranteed transfer from the National Fund is estimated at 2.77 trillion tenge, in line with the limit calculated based on the cut-off oil price. Expenditure growth rates over 2026–2028 are projected at 108.7–109.3%. Budget expenditures within the established limits will total 27.7 trillion tenge (15.1% of GDP) in 2026, 28.8 trillion tenge (14.0% of GDP) in 2027, and 29.8 trillion tenge (13.0% of GDP) in 2028.
Minister Zhumangarin stressed that the socioeconomic forecast, alongside budget and National Fund parameters, is aimed at ensuring high-quality, dynamic economic growth while safeguarding public finance sustainability.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has previously commended Kazakhstan’s economic reforms, noting a GDP growth rate of 6.4% this year.
