The European Union’s decision to extend the mandate of its observer mission on the Armenian side of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border until February 19, 2027, has generated significant controversy. The decision was made without Azerbaijan’s consent and is perceived as a potential obstacle to the normalization of relations between the two South Caucasus nations. My analysis explores the geopolitical implications, Azerbaijan’s position, and the broader impact of the EU’s involvement in the region.
Background
At the start of October 2022 the EU conducted talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan until both parties agreed on a temporary mission deployment of 40 members lasting two months. This mission ended in December 2022. The EU independently decided to establish a continuous mission near the border area with Azerbaijan during January 2023 despite the absence of Azerbaijani support. The mission grew from its initial number of 40 members to 209 personnel by December 2023 while including non-EU countries like Canada.
Azerbaijan’s Stance
The EU’s actions receive constant opposition from Azerbaijan because the European body believed these actions undermined former agreements and represented a sovereign violation. President Ilham Aliyev has criticized regarding mission development that surpasses authorized boundaries and has raised security concerns about non-EU force members primarily from NATO-related states. The former officials from military intelligence who participated in the mission are a concern to him (President Ilham Aliyev) due to possible espionage activities.
The Azerbaijan government considers the use of diplomatic surveillance methods known as “binocular diplomacy” to be one of the most contentious points about the mission. Military objectives and intelligence needs become more plausible regarding the EU mission after observing the deployment of high-ranking military personnel including French Brigadier General William De Meyer to inspect Azerbaijani territory.
Potential Impacts on Regional Stability and Peace Negotiations
Several detrimental effects are probable because the EU Monitoring Mission continues without Azerbaijani consent:
- President Ilham Aliyev confirmed that 15 out of 17 articles of the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace treaty have achieved consensus. The unresolved matter concerning deploying international forces presents itself as the main barrier preventing progress. Azerbaijan considers that the extended mission sabotages previous peace terms which now impedes ongoing peace talks.
- The establishment of EU and NATO-linked personnel throughout the South Caucasus raises West-Russia and West-Iran tensions within the region. Azerbaijan fears that the mission collects intelligence information exceeding the boundaries of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.
- The presence of an EU mission tends to heighten border military activities which generates additional strain in instead of resolving existing tensions. Concerns about Western involvement in the region continue rising after observers suspect the campaign has turned into a NATO-supported operation.
Armenia’s Role and Future Considerations
The Armenian government’s participation in the EU mission shows Western alignment which can put distance between it and its established regional relations with Russia. The strategy affiliated with risks because Azerbaijan has continuously achieved its strategic aims in the past. The safest course for Armenia to achieve stability will be through negotiating an agreement with Azerbaijan instead of depending on foreign intervention.
EU’s Strategic Intentions
The EU continues to maintain extended engagement with the South Caucasus through its long-term presence to secure its position in this area. The continued duration of the mission leads experts to question if its main purpose is conflict reduction or keeping geopolitical authority. A genuine goal of fostering peace requires EU to adopt a balanced approach which includes Azerbaijan in its decision-making strategies.
Conclusion and Recommendations
The extension of EU Monitoring Mission operation has deteriorated relationships between Azerbaijan and the European Union. The concerns about mission intentions grow stronger due to its enlarged task and NATO-aligned personnel membership alongside a unilateral extension policy.
The EU must revise its operational method by establishing immediate dialogue with Azerbaijan to support actual peace initiatives. The following path can advance the situation:
- The mission should be either delayed or reduced in order to prevent escalating tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
- Encouraging direct Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations without external military influences.
- The mission requires proper disclosure about its mission goals as well as full visibility into personnel details.
A sustainable resolution of conflicts in the South Caucasus requires Armenia and Azerbaijan to negotiate directly instead of accepting enduring outside intervention. By sustaining its current strategy, the EU deviates from stability promotion while moving away from its main objective. Lastly, the path of the peace in the region will be done through Baku, because Azerbaijan always talked about the peace and prosperity.

Mr. Muhammad Ali Pasha Analyst and Expert on Central Asia, South East Asia, China, Türkiye and Middle East. Furthermore, he is a writer and poet.