There has always been a driving force that is playing a crucial role in changing the dynamics of the world order. After the Second World War, the gold reserves and the military capabilities of the United States made her a superpower and in this way a new world order established. While looking at the new emerging trends in the international arena, it seems the role of AI is increasing in shaping the structure of societies. China and the United States have been engaged in tech war since decade. The US is imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods and curbing the export of sophisticated chips to china. China is surpassing the US in technological development and becoming the largest tech giant in the world. President Donald Trump has already imposed restrictions on Huawei and now planning to restrict the export of materials used in the development of AI.
The AI deepseek has surpassed the Chatgpt within the duration of one month in the US. The value of the company reaches trillions of dollars within a short period of time. As far as Deepseek is concern, the US leadership further creating new avenues for their tech companies to curtail the influence of china in a world market. The Biden Administration restricted tech companies such as Nividia from selling high processor chips to China. In return, china is trying to be self- sufficient in producing home grown equipment in the development of AI. If we see in a political lens, the AI is becoming a strategic asset for countries; countries having supremacy in AI would dominate the world. Political, economic, military and other sectors are shifting from conventional methods to AI based sectors.
The engagement of both China and the US in tech war clearly demonstrates the importance of AI in shaping the new world order. The world is a global village; country that lagged behind in AI would create a power vacuum in the international anarchic world. This is what Washington seems as a threat from China.
The future of global governance depends on how countries are regulating AI and dominating the world. However, the AI multi –polar world can be seen in a near future. The two blocs would be created: on the one hand the western led AI bloc and on the other, China and the global south. On the other hand, in western camp, the US and some western countries would work to balance the power. This will enhance the chances of trade war, economic challenges and tarrif competition.
Economically, it is predicted that AI will add 15.7 trillion dollars to the global economy. In this case, China might dominate the world economy if the country is engaging in the development of AI, similar goes to the United States. Country that dominates AI will control the future of AI automation, supply chains and economic expansion.
During the cold war era, the US and the USSR was also engaged in economic war based on capitalism and communism economic ideology. The history might be repeated where the development of AI enhance the communist led Chinas economic growth globally. Resultantly, Washington faces threats from the rise of China’s economy because other countries will follow the suit and perceive Capitalism as a failed economic model as compared to Chinese model.
Hence, the AI is also helping countries to dominate the perceptions of people globally. For instance, the AI algorithms are shaping the perceptions of people through diverse social media platforms and demonstrating the positive images of a particular country. The concern by the Trump administration to ban Chinese App Tiktok on the basis of data privacy and molding perception of American youth is in a case point. AI has already begun to alter the way people see, think, interpret information and form opinions. Personalized information based on algorithms reinforcing existing beliefs. The AI generated information and news can alter the results of elections and affect the free and fair democratic process. The use of deep fake images videos and audios making it easier to manipulate public opinion about any country and its rule based order.
If we see this in the case of the US and China, country that controls many social media platforms, algorithms, AI applications can easily mold the perception of individuals about the ideology, political and economic system and about the leader who can dominate the world. If today, majority of people favors capitalism and democracy, with the integration of AI, many countries can play a role in changing the perceptions of people about existing beliefs and impart a new information based on new world order that country wants to build.
The global divide over AI surveillance will shape the future governance models. On the one hand, AI authoritarianism and on the other AI democratic countries would conflict in political, military and economic sectors. China would lead the global south countries. The US would lead India, European and other allies.
AI arms race could lead to global conflicts. The development of AI in the military sphere by one country is causing prisoners dilemma for other country in the region. For instance, if the US is establishing AI sophisticated weapons, China will follow the suit. Similarly, when all major powers would engage in AI arms race, middle power also tries to balance the power and establish AI weapons for the security maximization. It would increase the risk of direct military conflict in a near future, if world leaders are not establishing UN AI regulatory body to prevent AI driven catastrophes.
The US –China AI war is reshaping global power structures, forcing nations, economies, and industries to adapt to the new AI-driven world order. The outcome will determine whether AI becomes a tool for human progress or a weapon for control and conflict.
Will AI unite the world, or will it divide us into technological factions? The answer lies in how nations handle the coming AI revolution.
The author is PRCCSF fellow and research analyst having keen interest in foreign policy, history, geopolitics, and international relations.
