The contemporary world order is transitioning, from US-led unipolarity to a fragmented and multipolar system, where rise of new powers has posed a challenge to liberal norms. In particular, middle powers, who have long questioned the liberal international order, have risen to mould the future of the world order through a position of strength. This was most evident during the US-Israel war on Iran, which research has described as the first genuine multipolar war. Therefore, in the words of President Xi Jinping, a “transformation unseen in a century is accelerating across the globe”.
Since hostilities began, US war aims shifted from regime change to limiting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Such ambiguities reflected non-pragmatic thinking on the US’s part as Washington sided with Tel Aviv despite no imminent threat posed by Iran to US. Operation Epic Fury followed pressure and misinformation from Israel and its lobby, plunging the world into crises ranging from fuel shortages to threats against food supply. This is because Iran, a regional contender against US hegemony, utilised its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. It is an essential waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil exports pass. Tehran has made it clear that the Strait will not return to its previous state, under no circumstances, with vessels from Iran’s friendly nations able to pass through. Disruptions in energy supply routes have also caused economic repercussions for Pakistan, an oil-importing economy. They have been absorbed through equity repricing and inflation expectations.
Attempting to maintain its hegemony in the region and incur economic costs on Tehran, the US Navy commenced the blockade of the Iranian ports. It has redirected ships in the open seas carrying cargo to or from Iran, which has sharply reduced Iran’s crude oil exports. Nevertheless, Tehran has long been prepared for a confrontation in Hormuz, building up a fleet of fast attack craft and deploying mines, anti‑ship missiles, and crewless armed subsurface vessels.
Moreover, Iran seeks tolls on Hormuz transit as war compensation. During the war it applied this protocol, allowing some ships to pass after paying transit fees. Interestingly, the payments have been made in Yuan to avoid US sanctions, which Iran plans on continuing. This spells trouble for the hegemonic US financial system and the petrodollar, as the move corresponds with Beijing’s aim of creating a multipolar international financial system. A gradual erosion of the dollar dominance in the energy sector is, therefore, highly likely. Ultimately, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the centre of gravity, providing Iran leverage to seek an end to the war on its own terms, weakening US hopes of ending the war on its terms. This is an embodiment of the Machiavellian quotation, “Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please.” Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that any deal to end the war with Iran cannot be based on our / your terms, rather the US has to learn not to dictate terms to Iran. Nonetheless, now Iran aims for the establishment of a post-war order to secure security guarantees against future attacks and long-term economic relief to stabilise its economy.
The war was initially publicised as a short-term excursion by the US President. It was hoped that the Iranian will could be subdued with the killing of their supreme leader and bombardment of strategic sites. However, as the war stretched longer than anticipated, with skirmishes and attacks continuing, it has become clear as day that Iran is not Venezuela. Ground realities exposed in hindsight reveal Iran’s wellpreparedness, and the upending of the long-held logic of precise precision warfare. Heeding lessons from last year’s Twelve-Day War, Iran has adopted a survivalfocused strategy, assumed a decentralised command and control system to counter US-Israeli decapitation strikes, and delegated authority to field commanders as it prolonged the war by betting on its higher pain threshold. Thus, this war emerged as a battle of endurance as opposed to munition count. This is not to disregard another emergent reality: attrition warfare. It was amply visible during June 2025’s events wherein Israel’s exhaustion and depletion of interceptors led to a ceasefire. In a similar vein, many living in Israel expressed fatigue over living in a constant state of war, particularly as Iranian missiles managed to pierce through Israel’s air defence systems and hit targets in Haifa and Tel Aviv. This has been a vivid display of Iran prevailing over the US and Israel by challenging them on the very ground of modern weapons where they claim superiority. By not capitulating, Iran has exposed the US-Israeli limits of power in pursuit of their hegemonic designs.
Henceforth, despite US-Israel state-of-the-art and modern aerial assets inclusive of offensive and defensive weaponry, Iran’s comparatively rudimentary drone swarms and missile salvos, turned the economics of war upside down.
